2022 Oscars: July Predictions

I wasn’t planning to update this so soon, but enough has changed this past month to warrant an update. We’ve had Cannes, programs announced for Venice and Toronto, plus a pack of new trailers, even if said "special looks" regurgitate past material. Amongst that hype, or however you took House of Gucci’s trailer, plenty of films have shifted their focus to next year. So, with the definite postponement of Blonde, the rumoured delay of Canterbury Glass, and one of the world’s most prestigious film festivals in our rear-view mirror, what do my July predictions offer, and more importantly, what changes?

BEST PICTURE

Fair Shot:

1) Nightmare Alley

2) West Side Story

3) Last Night in Soho

4) The French Dispatch

5) The Power of the Dog

6) Soggy Bottom

Long Shot:

7) The Humans

8) CODA

9) House of Gucci

10) Mass

Kinda in the Park:

11) Don’t Look Up

12) Dune

13) The Worst Person in the World

Canterbury Glass & In the Heights are out; House of Gucci has been bumped downward; The Humans, Mass and Last Night in Soho have moved up; Dune still remains unsure; The Worst Person in the World gains a footing and Don’t Look Up enters the race.

BEST DIRECTOR

Fair Shot:

1) Guillermo del Toro — Nightmare Alley

2) Steven Spielberg — West Side Story

3) Jane Campion — The Power of the Dog

Long Shot:

4) Edgar Wright — Last Night in Soho

5) Adam McKay — Don’t Look Up

Kinda in the Park:

6) Ridley Scott — House of Gucci

7) Paul Thomas Anderson — Soggy Bottom

8) Wes Anderson — The French Dispatch

9) Paolo Sorrentino — The Hand of God

10) Joachim Trier — The Worst Person in the World

Jane Campion moves to a more sure position; The French Dispatch’s below-the-line categories might overshadow everything else so Anderson is relegated; Ridley Scott doesn’t move; Chu from In the Heights is out, and Sorrentino & Trier are in.

BEST ACTOR

Fair Shot:

1) Denzel Washington — The Tragedy of Macbeth

2) Benedict Cumberbatch — The Power of the Dog

3) Bradley Cooper — Nightmare Alley

Long Shot:

4) Adam Driver — House of Gucci

5) Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up

Kinda in the Park:

6) Will Smith — King Richard

7) Andrew Garfield — The Eyes of Tammy Faye

8) Timothée Chalamet – Dune

Andrew Garfield changes films; Ramos is out; Driver has been moved down (for the time being); Cumberbatch makes his way into the race; Jason Isaacs moves to supporting and Washington stays in the lead.

BEST ACTRESS

Fair Shot:

1) Frances McDormand — The Tragedy of Macbeth

2) Kristen Stewart — Spencer

3) Jennifer Hudson — Respect

Long Shot:

4) Lady Gaga — House of Gucci

5) Rachel Zegler – West Side Story

Kinda in the Park:

6) Cate Blanchett — Nightmare Alley

7) Jessica Chastain — The Eyes of Tammy Faye

8) Renate Reinsve – The Worst Person in the World

De Armas will get her chance next year (oh well); Stewart takes that space for herself and Reinsve, still in an unsure spot, readies for higher ground.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Fair Shot:

1) Bradley Cooper — Soggy Bottom

2) Jesse Plemons — The Power of the Dog

3) Richard Jenkins — The Humans

Long Shot:

4) Jason Isaacs — Mass

5) Corey Hawkins – The Tragedy of Macbeth

Kinda in the Park:

6) David Alvarez — West Side Story

7) Mark Rylance — Don’t Look Up

8) Jared Leto — House of Gucci

The Power of the Dog has made its mark; Leto didn’t, and Don’t Look Up’s supporting players could get less a push and more of a shove from Netflix’s campaign dollars.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Fair Shot:

1) Ariana DeBose — West Side Story

2) Kirsten Dunst — The Power of the Dog

3) Ann Dowd — Mass

Long Shot:

4) Anya Taylor-Joy — Last Night in Soho

5) Rooney Mara — Nightmare Alley

Kinda in the Park:

6) Ruth Negga — Passing

7) Jayne Houdyshell — The Humans

8) Judi Dench — Belfast

Not much has changed, but Dunst, riding off the back of a category swap has set her foot as a strong competitor and potentially early (unseen) frontrunner. Belfast remains a quiet contender, but attention for Dench could lead elsewhere.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Fair Shot:

1) Flee

2) Luca

3) Encanto

Long Shot:

4) Vivo

5) Raya and the Last Dragon

Competition hasn’t changed but Luca inches closer to victory; Flee stubbornly (because I’m being snobbish) maintains its top spot.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Fair Shot:

1) Nightmare Alley

2) The French Dispatch

3) Last Night in Soho

Long Shot:

4) Dune

5) The Power of the Dog (*new)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Fair Shot:

1) House of Gucci

2) West Side Story

3) Cruella

Long Shot:

4) Nightmare Alley

5) The French Dispatch

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Fair Shot:

1) House of Gucci

2) Cruella

3) The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Long Shot:

4) Spencer

5) Nightmare Alley (*new)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Fair Shot:

1) The French Dispatch

2) Nightmare Alley

3) West Side Story

Long Shot:

4) The Power of the Dog

5) Dune (*new)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Fair Shot:

1) Nightmare Alley

2) House of Gucci

3) The Humans

Long Shot:

4) West Side Story

5) Dune

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Fair Shot:

1) The French Dispatch

2) Soggy Bottom

3) Last Night in Soho

Long Shot:

4) The Power of the Dog

5) The Worst Person in the World (*new)